Abstract
The world iron ore and steel trade is undergoing significant restructuring, with rapidly developing economies in regions such as China, India, and South Korea emerging as key centers of growth in the sector. Alternatively, the industrialized economies of the European Union, Japan, and North America are gradually losing their dominant role. This paper describes an econometric trade model that has been constructed to quantitatively evaluate the dynamics of the world iron ore and steel market to the year 2000. Results obtained from this model indicate that the developing Asian region will account for 67 percent of the projected increase in annual steel consumption to the end of this decade. Production in the region is projected to increase by 37.2 million tonnes. To produce this volume of steel, China alone will need to import 57.9 million tonnes of iron ore annually by the year 2000. The world's major iron ore exporters—Australia, Brazil, and India—are projected to increase production accordingly.
Published Version
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