Changes in the probability of larvae crossing the North Atlantic during the 20th century

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Lagrangian trajectories of passive particles were simulated using velocity fields provided by the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation model to determine changes in their probability of crossing the North Atlantic Ocean during the period 1899–2010. Particles were released in the Straits of Florida, where the Gulf Stream is the main driving force. The results showed that eddy kinetic energy increased along the Gulf Stream path, which enhanced connectivity across the Atlantic. The time for water parcels (passive tracers) to cross the North Atlantic Ocean has shortened in the past century, with a minimum crossing period of 6–7 months and a decreasing trend ranging from –0.15 to –0.40 months per decade.