Changes in the Organic Products Market as a Result of the 2022 Events in Eastern Europe

Abstract

Organic products markets will be affected by the food crisis, changes in the structure of consumer demand, rising food prices, and the migration of Ukrainians due to Russian aggression. This article aims to identify possible changes in the organic products markets due to the events of 2022 in Eastern Europe. Methodology. The main research methods included analysis and synthesis, comparison, and statistical analysis of organic markets of EE countries (Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, and Ukraine). The analysis was carried out according to the following criteria: key market indicators (land area, producers, exporters, importers, retail sales), development history; institutions; market development indicators, including export and import; standards and legal framework; state support policy. The databases used for the analysis are Eurostat (2022), Research Institute of Organic Agriculture by FiBL (2022), and 2008-2020 data. The results indicate possible changes in the organic products market due to the events of 2022 in Eastern Europe: 1) possible market growth for organic products in the countries with the highest refugee arrivals (Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, Moldova) and for Ukraine to overcome the food crisis; 2) a significant increase in prices of organic products due to increased demand for food and food crisis, higher energy costs; 3) market growth in Poland and the Czech Republic as the most developed among the EE countries due to increased demand for products in the importing countries (Germany, Italy, France and Spain); 4) possible reduction of organic food production due to reduced demand due to increased consumption of essential goods; 5) through the active provision of financial assistance to Ukraine to meet nutritional and humanitarian needs, EE countries reduce the financial capacity to support organic producers and their subsidies level.