Changes in surface air temperature over China under the 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming targets

Abstract

This study investigated the projected changes in the annual mean surface air temperature (SAT) over China under the 1.5 and 2.0 °C targets, by analyzing the outputs from 22 models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. Under the 1.5 °C target, the scope of changes in the average SAT over China is quite narrow and has the largest probability to increase by 1.7–2.0 °C under the various RCP pathways, although the time of occurrence of the 1.5 °C target has a large spread of 40–60 years. Similarly, the models consistently show that the average SAT over China would most likely increase by 2.4–2.7 °C under the 2.0 °C target. Furthermore, the warming shows a clear spatial distinction over China: being stronger in the northwest part and weaker in the southeast part. Under all RCP pathways, the SAT over the northwest part would increase by 1.9–2.1 °C for the 1.5 °C target, which is much stronger than the SAT increase over the southeast part (1.3–1.5 °C). A similar spatial pattern appears for the 2.0 °C target.