Abstract
Despite an overwhelming scientific consensus, a sizable minority of people doubt that human activity is causing climate change. Communicating the existence of a scientific consensus has been suggested as a way to correct individuals’ misperceptions about human-caused climate change and other scientific issues, though empirical support is mixed. We report an experiment in which psychology students were presented with consensus information about two issues, and subsequently reported their perception of the level of consensus and extent of their endorsement of those issues. We find that messages about scientific consensus on the reality of anthropogenic climate change and the safety of genetically modified food shift perceptions of scientific consensus. Using mediation models we also show that, for both these issues, high consensus messages also increase reported personal agreement with the scientific consensus, mediated by changes in perceptions of a scientific consensus. This confirms the role of perceived consensus in informing personal beliefs about climate change, though results indicate the impact of single, one-off messages may be limited.
Highlights
There are some issues for which a substantial proportion of the public hold beliefs that are at odds with broad scientific consensus
This study offers new insights into the efficacy of consensus messaging and the role that perceptions of scientific agreement play in informing personal beliefs
Our results indicate that short, simple messages about high scientific consensus increase individuals’ perception of a scientific consensus
Summary
There are some issues for which a substantial proportion of the public hold beliefs that are at odds with broad scientific consensus. Examples include the reality of human-caused climate change [1,2], the safety of genetically modified food (GM) [3] and the efficacy of vaccines [4]. This ‘rejection of science’ poses a risk to humanity: doubts about climate change lead to personal and societal inaction, resulting in global environmental changes as well as social and economic costs [5]; concerns regarding vaccination threaten to lower immunisation rates and increase the spread of diseases such as measles [4], and; fears around the safety of GM foods could limit efforts to provide a sustainable level of food production for a growing global population [6]. Thirty percent of participants in the 2014 wave of the longitudinal New Zealand Attitudes and Values
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