Abstract
BackgroundChanges of life expectancy over time serve as an interesting public health indicator for medical, social and economic developments within populations. The aim of this study was to quantify changes of life expectancy between 1950 and 2010 and relate these to main causes of death.MethodsPollard’s actuarial method of decomposing life expectancy was applied to compare the contributions of different age- and disease-groups on life expectancy in 5-year intervals.ResultsFrom the 1960 to 70s on, declines in cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality play an increasing role in improving life expectancy in many developed countries. During the past decades gains in life expectancy in these countries were mainly observed in age groups ≥65 years. A further consistent pattern was that life expectancy increases were stronger in men than in women, although life expectancy is still higher in women. In Japan, an accelerated epidemiologic transition in causes of death was found, with the highest increases between 1950 and 1955. Short-term declines and subsequent gains in life expectancy were observed in Eastern Europe and the former states of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR), reflecting the changes of the political system.ConclusionsChanges of life years estimated with the decomposing method can be directly interpreted and may therefore be useful in public health communication. The development within specific countries is highly sensitive to changes in the political, social and public health environment.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12963-016-0089-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
Highlights
Since 1840, life expectancy of the best performing country in each year has been increasing almost linearly by 2.5 years per decade [1]
The objectives of this study were to give a longitudinal overview of the contributions of age- and disease-specific mortality rates to the changes in life expectancy, as exemplified and presented for selected countries between 1950 and 2010
The lowest Gross National Income (GNI) per capita was reported in Tajikistan (US$730) and the highest in Norway (US$86,830)
Summary
Since 1840, life expectancy of the best performing country in each year has been increasing almost linearly by 2.5 years per decade [1]. Japan achieved the world’s highest life expectancy over the past 50 years, starting from a very low level at the end of World War II [1, 2], while Japan’s health expenditures are relatively low compared to other nations [2]. The development of mortality in populations follows similar patterns. Since 1950, the World Health Organization (WHO) has been collecting data on mortality and causes of death. Changes of life expectancy over time serve as an interesting public health indicator for medical, social and economic developments within populations. The aim of this study was to quantify changes of life expectancy between 1950 and 2010 and relate these to main causes of death
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