No change in life expectancy: the devil is in the detail

Abstract

Abstract Background The rate of improvement in life expectancy in high income countries has slowed down over the past few years, and instances where life expectancy is lower than a year before are increasingly common. This paper aims to analyse changes in life expectancy over the last decade to better understand what causes and age groups contribute to the slowdown. Methods We use WHO mortality data by age and cause to construct life tables, and we use Arriaga decomposition method to analyse the contribution of specific causes and age groups to changes in life expectancy in Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Netherlands, United Kingdom and the United States of America. We look at the change between 2007-2012 and 2012-2017 (or latest available). Results All countries experienced a slowdown in life expectancy in the past 5 years (2012-2017), in comparison to the preceding period. Slowdown in under 65s was particularly pronounced, with younger age groups only contributing minimally (between 0.4 years for males in Germany and -0.4 years for males in the United States) to changes in life expectancy. Among people aged 65 and over, gains ranged between 0.05 years for females in France and 0.6 years for males in the Netherlands. Certain causes of death contributed negatively to change in life expectancy between 2012 and 2017, with notable increases in deaths from accidental poisonings in males (up to -0.09 year in the UK and Canada, and -0.34 in the US) and suicides (up to -0.08 year in Australia and -0.07 in the US). Conclusions While recent slowdown in life expectancy gains in high income countries is often attributed to lack of improvement in people of older ages, we show that, beyond this, there are increases in mortality in younger age groups from external causes, that contribute negatively to change in life expectancy in some countries. This pattern is of a particular concern, as deterioration in preventable mortality points to broader worsening of socio-economic climate. Key messages Improvements in life expectancy in high income countries slowed down markedly over the past few years, but contributing mortality patterns differ for age groups and causes of death across countries. Persistent increases in preventable mortality from certain external causes in younger age groups in Australia, Canada, US and UK point to broader deterioration of socio-economic climate.