Changes in human potential in Russia until 2050 under the influence of the transformation of the age structure of the population

Abstract

The subject of the study is the projected changes in the age composition of the population as a factor of the prospective dynamics of the components of human potential. The purpose of the work is to assess the upcoming shifts in the age composition of the Russian population for the period up to 2050 and related changes in the health status of the population and the proportion of people with higher education as components of human potential. The article presents the results of the forecast calculation of the age population of Russia for the period up to 2050. As a result of the study, it was found out that a significant increase in the proportion of the elderly population is expected, a decrease in the proportion of people of working age and an even greater decrease in the proportion of the population under the age of 20. An assessment of possible changes in the health status of the population (according to self-assessment) in connection with the upcoming aging of the population is given. It is concluded that taking into account generational changes in the proportion of people with higher education, combined with upcoming shifts in the age structure of the population, indicate a likely significant increase in this indicator in the population of Russia in the next 30 years.