Changes in Gross Output Value of Planting Industry and Their Decomposition of Crops in China Based on the LMDI Model

Abstract

Based on the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) method, this study systematically analyzes the change in gross output value of planting industry in China during 1990–2012 , reveals the contribution of total sown areas of farm crops, planting structure, per hectare output of crop and price level of crop on gross output value of planting industry and identifies significant contributors to the changes at different times, thereby providing reference for the rapid growth in gross output value of planting industry in China. The following results are obtained: (1) The gross output value of planting industry in China was increased by 995.31 billion Yuan during 1990–2012; during those nine crops, rice had the maximum increment in gross output value, while peanut increased at the fastest rate; the output value of rice, wheat and maize occupied an important position, but showed overall downward trend with fluctuation. (2) The cumulative contributions of total sown area of farm crops, planting structure, per hectare output of crop and price level of crop on the gross output value were 88.64, −24.18, 228.22 and 702.63 billion Yuan, respectively. Price level of crop and per hectare output of crop were the main contributors to the rapid increase in gross output value of planting industry; from the view of respective crops, the effects of price level of crop and per hectare output of crop in those nine crops were positive; the rapid rise in the price of rice, maize, wheat, cotton and peanut, superimposed with the significant increase in the per hectare output of cotton and the planting proportion of maize, obviously promoted gross output value of planting industry during 1990–2012. (3) The gross output value of planting industry in China was closely related to national macroeconomic policies. The rise of crop price was the major contributor to increase in gross output value of planting industry during 1990–1996; the overall decline in the price of crop and the planting proportion led to significant decline in gross output value during 1997–2003; the rebound rise in the price of crop and the rapid increase in per hectare output of crop resulted in significant increase in gross output value of planting industry during 2004–2012.