Changes in future precipitation over South Korea using a global high-resolution climate model

Abstract

We used daily precipitation data from a global high-resolution climate scenario to analyze the features of future precipitation including extreme and heavy rainfall. The scenario shows that the model reproduces the daily precipitation over South Korea well. The projections show an increase in annual precipitation of approximately 18% in the late 21st century, with the highest increase (38%) occurring in winter. The number of days with daily precipitation of less than 5 mm decreases, but that of daily precipitation of more than 5 mm increases slightly in the latter part of the 21st century. The peak of precipitation days shifted from July to August. The number of days with relatively small amounts of precipitation (10 and 30 mm d−1) increases most substantially in the winter season, but that for large amounts of precipitation (50, 80, 100, and 130 mm d−1) increases most in the summer season. Events with heavy precipitation rates of 100 and 130 mm d−1 are expected to occur in the winter season in the late 21st century, although no such events occurred during the winter season in the reference period.