Abstract
Significant positive trends are found in the evolution of daily rainfall extremes in the city of Sao Paulo (Brazil) from 1933 to 2010. Climatic indices including ENSO, PDO, NAO and the sea surface temperature at the coast near Sao Paulo explain 85 % of the increasing frequency of extremes during the dry season. During the wet season the climatic indices and the local sea surface temperature explain a smaller fraction of the total variance when compared to the dry season indicating that other factors such as the growth of the urban heat island and the role of air pollution in cloud microphysics need to be taken into account to explain the observed trends over the almost eight decades.
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