Changes in Earth’s Energy Flows and Clouds in 228-Year Simulation with a High-Resolution AGCM

Abstract

We have examined long-term changes in Earth’s energy flows at top of the atmosphere (TOA) and at Earth’s surface (land and ocean) by using 228-year simulation of a high-resolution global atmosphere model, MRI-AGCM3.2. It is found that the net downward short wave (SW) radiation (absorbed solar radiation, ASR) at TOA significantly increases during twenty-first century in agreement with a previous study. However, in the present study, the reason for the change is an increase in clear sky SW absorption by increased water vapor in the atmosphere, while it is a decrease in cloud amount in the previous study. It is also found that the long wave (LW) cloud radiative forcing for atmosphere is positive and increasing during twenty-first century in agreement with a previous study. The reason for the change in the present study is an increase in absorption by water vapor of the downward LW radiation emitted from clouds, while it is reductions of cloud amount in the middle troposphere in the previous study.