Abstract
In recent decades, human activities have significantly transformed land use and land cover (LULC) and the environment of the Central Himalayas region. LULC is a major component of environmental and climatic research. The aim of this study was to determine the changes in cropland status and its drivers in the Koshi River Basin (KRB) of the Central Himalayas region of Nepal between 1978 and 2010. The cropland status in 1978 was obtained from the Land Resources Mapping Project (LRMP) datasets. The cropland status in 1992 and 2010 was determined on the basis of satellite imagery, with an object-oriented classification method, together with field investigations. Advanced geographical tools were used for data processing and binary logistic regression models were used for the statistical analysis of potential driving factors of cropland change. A noticeable overall change in cropland area was found, with rapid increases from 1978 onward at differing rates and to different extents. The cropland area covered 7165 km2 in 1978. It peaked at 7867.49 km2 in 1992, and had reduced slightly (by 90 km2) to 7776.66 km2 by 2010. The change in cropland area was mainly related to four potential driving factors: topography (elevation, slope, and soil types), socioeconomics (population and foreign labor migration), climate (annual mean temperature and precipitation), and neighborhood factors (roads, rivers, and settlements). However, the effects of the different variables have occurred over various stages and at different rates. An understanding of long-term changes in cropland status in the KRB would be useful, and this could be extended to spatial reconstructions with the help of historical data, including cropland and climatic archives.
Highlights
The primary mode of land use involves modifications brought about through human activity and the conversion of natural ecosystems to agriculture [1,2]
Our study focused on an area of 25,898.55 km2 on the Nepal side of the border, situated at 26◦51 –28◦12 N, 85◦22 –88◦12 E in the Central Himalayas region (Figure 1)
The statistical result of the logistic regression model showed that the role of elevation was significant, and ranked first as a potential driving factor of cropland contraction in 1992–2010, whereas it had less of an effect during the expansion period
Summary
The primary mode of land use involves modifications brought about through human activity and the conversion of natural ecosystems to agriculture [1,2]. In Nepal, such studies have been undertaken in relation to the drastic changes in cropland that have occurred in recent decades [5,6]. Negative consequences of human activity [8] on the Earth’s landscape were recognized [9], and in recent decades a rapidly increasing human amendment of land cover and its conversion has occurred [10,11]. The process of cropland change is complex and occurs over different pathways, with a diversity of magnitudes and rates [12]. It is always dynamic and occurs differently when observed at different scales [13]. Several studies have been well documented, and have created long-term spatial datasets detailing the overall changes in cropland [1,2,14]
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