Prediction of land use and land cover (LULC) changes using CA-Markov model in Mamuju Subdistrict

Abstract

Changes in land use and land cover (LULC) are one of the changes that are directly affected by human activities which are largely driven by socio-economic factors. Knowing, analyzing and modeling LULC change transformation plays an important role in planning, management and decision making activities. The purpose of this study is to develop LULC projection models using CA-Markov analysis to predict LULC in 2034 in Mamuju Subdistrict as the city centre of Mamuju Regency which has a rapid change in LULC. Inputs used in this research are data on river networks, roads, public facilities, LULC 2009, LULC 2014 and LULC 2019. The results showed that for 25 years (2009-2034) forest dominated land cover in Mamuju Subdistrict and settlement into LULC classes which has increased. In 2034, settlements have an area of 5.88% of the total study area or grow by 4.93% over the period of 2009-2034. The CA-Markov model used in predicting LULC changes was validated and produced a kappa coefficient of 0.969 (96.9%) which showed that the model had successfully predicted LULC changes in the study area.