Changes in Coastal Agricultural Land Use in Response to Climate Change: An Assessment Using Satellite Remote Sensing and Household Survey Data in Tien Hai District, Thai Binh Province, Vietnam

Duong H Nong,Hoa P T Nguyen,An T Ngo,Summet Saksena,Lan T Nguyen,Thuy T Nguyen

doi:10.3390/land10060627

Duong H Nong, Hoa P T Nguyen + Show 4 more

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https://doi.org/10.3390/land10060627

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Abstract

We analyzed the agricultural land-use changes in the coastal areas of Tien Hai district, Thai Binh province, in 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020, using Landsat 5 and Landsat 8 data. We used the object-oriented classification method with the maximum likelihood algorithm to classify six types of land uses. The series of land-use maps we produced had an overall accuracy of more than 80%. We then conducted a spatial analysis of the 5-year land-use change using ArcGIS software. In addition, we surveyed 150 farm households using a structured questionnaire regarding the impacts of climate change on agricultural productivity and land uses, as well as farmers’ adaptation and responses. The results showed that from 2005 to 2020, cropland decreased, while aquaculture land and forest land increased. We observed that the most remarkable decreases were in the area of rice (485.58 ha), the area of perennial crops (109.7 ha), and the area of non-agricultural land (747.35 ha). The area of land used for aquaculture and forest increased by 566.88 ha and 772.60 ha, respectively. We found that the manifestations of climate change, such as extreme weather events, saltwater intrusion, drought, and floods, have had a profound impact on agricultural production and land uses in the district, especially for annual crops and aquaculture. The results provide useful information for state authorities to design land-management strategies and solutions that are economic and effective in adapting to climate change.

Highlights

Land cover, which is shaped by land-use practices, greatly impacts the local and global climate by altering the flow of energy, water, and greenhouse gases between the land and the atmosphere [1,2]
The land-use change analysis in the Tien Hai district over three time periods showed that the most significant changes occurred for paddy land, aquaculture land, and forest land
Under the Blue Economy framework, has gained the special attention of authorities to minimize the impacts of sea-level rise, saltwater intrusion, and tropical storms

Summary

Introduction

Land cover, which is shaped by land-use practices, greatly impacts the local and global climate by altering the flow of energy, water, and greenhouse gases between the land and the atmosphere [1,2]. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has estimated that about 24% of greenhouse gas emissions are from agriculture, forestry, and other types of land use [3]. Climate change could shrink global arable land by up to 21%, especially in some equatorial and southern hemisphere regions [5]. Vietnam is among the countries most vulnerable to climate change impacts such as sea-level rise, abnormal temperature change, and extreme weather events (floods and storms) [6,7,8]. Climate change impacts could cause a loss of agricultural land up to 14% in the Red River Delta and 24% in the Mekong River Delta [9]

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