Abstract
In this study, we investigate changes in temperature and precipitation extremes over West and Central Africa (hereafter, WAF domain) as a function of global mean temperature with a focus on the implications of global warming of 1.5 °C and 2 °C according the Paris Agreement. We applied a scaling approach to capture changes in climate extremes with increase in global mean temperature in several subregions within the WAF domain: Western Sahel, Central Sahel, Eastern Sahel, Guinea Coast and Central Africa including Congo Basin.While there are several uncertainties and large ensemble spread in the projections of temperature and precipitation indices, most models show high-impact changes in climate extremes at subregional scale. At these smaller scales, temperature increases within the WAF domain are projected to be higher than the global mean temperature increase (at 1.5 °C and at 2 °C) and heat waves are expected to be more frequent and of longer duration. The most intense warming is observed over the drier regions of the Sahel, in the central Sahel and particularly in the eastern Sahel, where the precipitation and the soil moisture anomalies have the highest probability of projected increase at a global warming of 1.5 °C. Over the wetter regions of the Guinea Coast and Central Africa, models project a weak change in total precipitation and a decrease of the length of wet spells, while these two regions have the highest increase of heavy rainfall in the WAF domain at a global warming of 1.5 °C. Western Sahel is projected by 80% of the models to experience the strongest drying with a significant increase in the length of dry spells and a decrease in the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index. This study suggests that the ‘dry gets drier, wet gets wetter’ paradigm is not valid within the WAF domain.
Highlights
After the 21st Conference of Parties in Paris (2015), the decision to hold global temperature increases to ‘well below 2 degrees’ and to pursue efforts to limit warming to 1.5 ◦C above pre-industrial levels focused the climate change debate on a temperature threshold rather than on carbon emissions or concentrations
West and Central Africa are threatened by climate change due to high climate variability, high reliance on rainfed agriculture and limited economic and institutional capacity to respond to climate variability and change (Sultan and Gaetani 2016)
It is crucial to know if changes in the dominating climatological parameters in these subregions will be amplified with increasing global mean temperature
Summary
Arona Diedhiou1,6,11 , Adeline Bichet, Richard Wartenburger , Sonia I Seneviratne, David P Rowell, Mouhamadou B Sylla, Ismaila Diallo, Stella Todzo, N’datchoh E Toure, Moctar Camara, Benjamin Ngounou Ngatchah, Ndjido A Kane, Laure Tall and Francois Affholder. Abidjan, Cote d’Ivoire 7 LOSEC, Universite Assane Seck de Ziguinchor, Ziguinchor, Senegal 8 Universitede Ngaoundere, Ngaoundere, Cameroon 9 Institut Senegalais de Recherches Agricoles (ISRA), Dakar, Senegal CIRAD, Montpellier, France Author to whom any correspondence should be addressed
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
