Changes in carbon intensity globally and in countries: Attribution and decomposition analysis

Abstract

In the open economy, both carbon and gross domestic product (GDP) embodied in import and export either transfer or flow between countries. To better understand them from the perspective of both supply and demand within the global framework, we construct appropriate indicators, namely production-based and consumption-based carbon intensity (PBCI and CBCI). Based on the continuous time series’ inter-country input–output (ICIO) table with comparable prices, we provide an overview of the spatial–temporal variations of PBCI and CBCI between Annex I and non-Annex I Parties and across countries. On this basis, we explore the contribution rate of 11 economies to the change of global real PBCI and CBCI based on attribution analysis and track the driving factors of the change of PBCI and CBCI at the global, two Parties, and countries levels based on LMDI method. We find the followings: (1) PBCI was far higher than CBCI in most non-Annex I Parties where the carbon terms of transaction first continuously worsened and then slightly improved, while the complete opposite was the case in most Annex I Parties, and both PBCI and CBCI first converged and then expanded and converged again between the two Parties in 1996–2009. (2) The declines in global real PBCI and CBCI were mainly attributed to the US, China, the EU, and Russia, because of the significant decrease in carbon intensities. (3) Although the effects of driving factors leading to the change in PBCI and CBCI at different levels were different, the emission factor and the energy intensity effect were the main positive drivers of decline in both PBCI and CBCI.