Abstract
Much attention has focused on the effects of precipitation (P) and temperature (T) changes on runoff (R); however, the impacts of other climatic factors need to be studied further. Moreover, the monthly and seasonal scale also need to be investigated. In this paper, we investigated the characteristics of changes in annual, seasonal, and monthly hydroclimatic variables, including R, P, T, sunshine duration (SD), relative humidity (RH), and wind speed (WS), between 1956 and 2015 in the Hutuo River basin (HTRB) using the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test, the cumulative anomaly test and the Precipitation-Runoff double cumulative curve method. Additionally, we assessed the contributions of climatic factors to changes in R in the HTRB between 1956 and 2015 using the climate elasticity method. The results indicated that significant downward trends were found for both annual and seasonal R, SD, RH, and WS. In contrast, there was a nonsignificant decrease in annual P; specifically, P significantly increased in spring and winter, but P insignificantly decreased in summer and autumn. Annual and seasonal T increased significantly. The annual R showed an abrupt change in 1979; thus, the entire study period from 1956 to 2015 was divided into two periods: the baseline period (i.e., 1956–1978) and the change period (i.e., 1979–2015). The elasticities in the climatic factors were calculated using the climate elasticity method, and the elasticity values of P, T, SD, RH, and WS were 1.84, −1.07, −2.79, 1.73, and −0.45, respectively. Increasing T was the main cause of the decline in R, and decreasing SD had a large negative contribution to the decline in R in the HTRB. This study will help researchers understand the interactions between climate change and hydrological processes at the basin scale and promote water resource management and watershed planning.
Highlights
In recent decades, climate change has attracted increasing global attention because the changing climate could affect water supplies [1,2]
We used the climate elasticity method to assess the contributions of climatic factors on annual and seasonal R change for the period of 1956–2015 in the Hutuo River basin (HTRB)
We first investigated the characteristics of changes in annual, seasonal, and monthly hydroclimatic variables, including R, P, T, sunshine duration (SD), relative humidity (RH), and wind speed (WS), during the period of 1956–2015 in the HTRB
Summary
Climate change has attracted increasing global attention because the changing climate could affect water supplies [1,2]. Fifth Assessment Report on Climate Change noted that the global average temperature increased by. Spatial and temporal changes in precipitation (P) have been observed in many parts of the world [4,5,6]. Runoff (R) is one of the most important components of the water cycle and is affected by climate change. River R and water resources have changed in many parts of the world due to climate change [7,8,9,10]. Climate change affects water resources and threatens agricultural production in China [11]. Understanding how much of the observed change in R can be attributed to climate change is important to water resource management
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