Change points estimation and simulation for software reliability model

Abstract

The change points exist in the failure process of software. The number and locations of change points produce significant influence on software reliability estimation, but now there is no effective way to estimate accurately. Therefore, this paper proposes a new method of change points estimation. According to the control chart of software failure data and the proposed judgment criteria of change points, it estimates the number and locations of change points initially. Then, it proposes a progressive adjustment method to calculate locations of change points accurately. The feasibility and effectiveness of the new method are examined by using two public software failure data sets. The results show that the proposed model with new change points fits the failure data better and can predict two sets of data more accurately.