Abstract
The climate oscillations of the quaternary periods have profoundly affected the geographic distributions of current species. Acer davidii is a deciduous forest tree species mainly distributed in East Asia and China, playing a dominant role in the local forest ecosystem. In order to study the potential changes of geographic distributions of A. davidii in climate fluctuations, we collected the relate geographical distribution data and six climatic variables, using maximum entropy modelling to determine the species distribution. The results showed that the Areas Under Curve (AUC) values of the working characteristic curves of the subjects in the five historical periods were all greater than 0.93, suggesting that the results of maximum entropy modelling were accurate. The simulation of species distribution showed that the suitable area of A. davidii was mainly concentrated in central and northern China in contemporary times. From the Last Interglacial Age (LIG) to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), and then to the future (2050, 2070), the distribution area of this species experienced a decrease (LGM~Current; the high adaptability areas of central China became moderate) then an increase (Current~2050, the adaptation areas expanded to South Asia, Southeast Asia, and Siberia), and finally decreased (2050~2070, the suitable areas of South Asia, Southeast Asia, and Siberia shrank returning to China at latitude 25 °N). Compared to the LGM, the area of contemporary suitable area increased. Interestingly, the area of suitable growth range under future climatic conditions (2050) increased by half than before, and the suitable distribution area moved from Midwest China to Northeast China. This study on the change of species distribution can provide a typical case for the model study on the response of plants to climate change in the north temperate and subtropical zones of East Asia. Meanwhile, it can also give a basis for planting planning, species protection, and management.
Highlights
IntroductionThe prediction of the geographic distributions changes under the paleoclimate condition can provide an effective method for predicting the distribution area under future climate change [1]
The purpose of this study is derstand the impact of climate change on the distribution of A. davidii since the Last Glato understand the impact of climate change on the distribution of A. davidii since the cial Maximum to determine the important environmental factors that affect its distribuLast Glacial Maximum to determine the important environmental factors that affect its tion and to predict the change of its suitable areas, so as to provide theoretical reference distribution and to predict the change of its suitable areas, so as to provide theoretical and scientific for thebasis protection utilization
In the Last Glacial Maximum (MIROC, CCSM), last interglacial, present and future (2050, 2070) simulations, the top three environmental factors were the mean temperature of the coldest quarter, precipitation of the warmest quarter, and annual precipitation
Summary
The prediction of the geographic distributions changes under the paleoclimate condition can provide an effective method for predicting the distribution area under future climate change [1]. Continuing global warming has a significant impact on global natural ecosystems. Thomas et al [2], based on scenarios of moderate warming in 2050, have found that 15–37% of species in the sample areas (covering 20% of the Earth’s surface) will be at risk of extinction. Climate change affects the geographical distribution of species, population growth, decline, and stability to a certain extent [3], and it has been widely proved to have a great impact on community composition and structure [4,5], vegetation pattern, and ecosystem function [6]
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