Change in the distribution of heavy 1 h precipitation due to temperature changes in measured values, model reanalyses and model simulations of future climate

Abstract

This article presents main results on how the 1 h precipitation distribution changes, focused on high percentiles, with increasing air temperature based on the data from the Czech territory. The air temperature, the dew point temperature (both measured at 2 m above ground) and the temperature of lifting condensation level are used as temperature characteristics. The change in the distribution of 1 h precipitation measurements is compared with the results of reanalyses based on simulations of numerical weather prediction model ALADIN-CZ and with the results of future climate simulations by climate model ALADIN-CLIMAT-CZ. In general, the increase in precipitation appears clearly in the very upper part of precipitation distribution for high percentiles. Values of the upper percentiles of precipitation increase up to a certain threshold temperature and then decrease, which is also found in other studies. This also applies to the simulations of future climate. The main difference in measured and model results appears at the highest temperature values, which may be implied by the very different number of the model and the measured data.