Challenging the Significance of the LALIA and the Justinianic Plague: A Reanalysis of the Archaeological Record

Abstract

Summary The Late Antique Little Ice Age (LALIA), and the Justinianic Plague, were recently suggested as the possible culprits for settlement contraction and population decline that supposedly occurred in the 6th c. CE. According to some who support this claim, these changes contributed to the weakening of this empire, which eventually led to the loss of vast territories and its defeat by the Persians and Arabs in the first half of the 7th c. CE. The assumptions that climate and plague had devastating impacts in the 6th c. CE are largely based on selected textual evidence, and archaeological evidence outside of the boundaries of the Eastern Roman Empire. As the current article will show, it seems that these assumptions are inherently incorrect as vast amounts of evidence, including archaeological survey data, settlement patterns, shipwreck analyses, pottery distribution in the Mediterranean and other material, indicate that there was no decline in the 6th c. CE. On the contrary, it is possible that there was a peak in population size in the second half of the 6th c. CE, suggesting that the LALIA and the Justinianic plague were limited in their impact.