Challenges of International Migration in a Globalized World: Implications for Europe

Abstract

The research conducted aims to identify and assess the interdependencies between international migration and labour market outcomes, focusing both on emigration and immigration effects on sending, and destination countries, as well as on economic (labour force) and non-economic (humanitarian, refugees) migration. International migration as one of the most important frontiers of globalization represents a major challenge globally, with significant economic consequences, especially for Europe, where large migrant flows have emerged in the context of European integration. Moreover, recently there is an increased waves of refugees and asylum seekers targeting Germany, Austria, Sweden or Turkey as main destination countries coming through Eastern and Central Mediterranean or Western Balkans routes. The analysis is based on developing various double-log fixed and random effects models, as well as dynamic models, using a panel structure that covers five main EU destination countries (Germany, Austria, Sweden, Italy and Spain) and three New EU Member States since 2007 and 2013 (Romania, Bulgaria, Croatia). We used a complex set of indicators (national accounts – GDP total, per capita, per person, employed; labour market – employment, unemployment, wages, secondary and tertiary education; migration specific data – immigration flows and stocks, asylum seekers and refugees, emigrant stocks), compiled during 2000-2014. Moreover, we used a SEM model (Structural Equations Modelling) to better capture the labour market impacts of international migration for the selected EU countries. The models are processed through OLS, GLS, and MLE methods, as well as by using panel corrected standard errors, and are completed within and out-of-sample predictions. The results show that immigration flows have important economic consequences leading to significant changes in labour market performances (slight decrease in employment rates and wage levels), which largely vary from one country to another. On the long-run, the negative effects of immigration tend to predominate. From the emigration perspective, the findings show some positive effects of labour emigration on sending countries, by enabling to upgrade the living standards for those remaining, mainly through remittances. Still, there is a negative impact generated on the size and structure of internal labour force and, on the long run, this is proving to be extremely negative (slow GDP per capita growth rates).