Challenges of Forecasting the Long-Run Economic Consequences of Pandemics for Selected sub-Saharan Economies

Abstract

As the global economy continues to wrestle with the recent COVID-19 pandemic, the effect of the pandemic continues to negatively affect economies and markets’ supply and demand trends. The significant decrease in trade and increase in unemployment rates across the globe are indicators of the widespread economic slump. This paper aims to illuminate the long-term effects of the ensuing COVID-19 pandemic by studying the effect of historical catastrophes that also had negative and long-lasting effects in the societies and contexts in West Africa. A desk review and analysis of the challenges encountered in forecasting the long-term effects of pandemics was undertaken to highlight some of the macroeconomic effects of pandemics. One of the takeaways from this critical analysis was that Economists face challenges when forecasting long-run effects across contexts and scenarios. The paper concludes by identifying some of the essential behavioral changes and the role that regional blocs could play in cushioning economies in their regions and mitigating for dangerous levels of economic ruin bought about by future pandemics.