Abstract
Background:Cervical cancer is the second most common cancer of women in Thailand. There have been no reports of incidence and future in Khon Kaen, a province in northeastern Thailand, where the relatively high prevalence gives evaluation of cervical cancer screening a high priority. Objectives:To determine cervical cancer incidence rates in Khon Kaen for 1990–2014 and predict future trends until 2029. Methods:Cancer incidence data from the Khon Kaen population-based cancer registry were analyzed and age-standardized incidence rates (ASR) were estimated. Joinpoint analysis and age-period-cohort modeling were applied for data from 1990 to 2014 and the Nordpred package was employed to project trends from 2015 to 2029. Results:Between 1990 and 2014, a total of 3,258 cases were diagnosed with ICD-O code C53 (invasive cervical cancer). Before 2005, an annual percentage change (APC) varied widely, with outliers in 1993 and 1999. The APC computed with the Joinpoint software decreased at -2.8% (95% CI;-4.5 to -1.1) per year on average. After 2005, a rise was noted until 2008, after which a drop became apparent with an APC of -8.0% (95% CI; -14.5 to -1.1) per year on average. Both period and cohort effects played a role in shaping the decrease in incidence. The three projection method suggested that incidence rates would continue to decrease in the future.Conclusions:A decreasing trend in incidence of cervical cancer in Khon Kaen was noted from 1990 to 2014 with a prediction of continuous decrease until 2029. Maintenance and improvement of the screening program is advised.
Highlights
Cervical cancer is the fourth most common cancer in women worldwide, with an estimated 528,000 new cases and 266,000 deaths, accounting for 7.5% of all female cancer mortality in 2012
The current study showed that the incidence of cervical cancer has been decreasing by -3.4% per year (AAPC)
This is consistent with the age-standardized incidence rates (ASR) of cervical cancer as report by the Thailand cancer registry (Vatanasapt et al, 1993; Deerasamee et al, 1999; Sriplung et al, 2003; Khuhaprema et al, 2007; 2010; 2012; 2013; Imsamran et al, 2015)
Summary
Cervical cancer is the fourth most common cancer in women worldwide, with an estimated 528,000 new cases and 266,000 deaths, accounting for 7.5% of all female cancer mortality in 2012. There have been no reports of incidence and future in Khon Kaen, a province in northeastern Thailand, where the relatively high prevalence gives evaluation of cervical cancer screening a high priority. Objectives: To determine cervical cancer incidence rates in Khon Kaen for 1990–2014 and predict future trends until 2029. Methods: Cancer incidence data from the Khon Kaen population-based cancer registry were analyzed and age-standardized incidence rates (ASR) were estimated. After 2005, a rise was noted until 2008, after which a drop became apparent with an APC of -8.0% (95% CI; -14.5 to -1.1) per year on average Both period and cohort effects played a role in shaping the decrease in incidence. Conclusions: A decreasing trend in incidence of cervical cancer in Khon Kaen was noted from 1990 to 2014 with a prediction of continuous decrease until 2029.
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