Abstract 4140: Secular trends in incidence and mortality of female cancers in Shanghai, China (1973-2009)

Abstract

Abstract Socioeconomic development and urbanization have resulted in dramatic changes in cancer incidence and mortality in China. As one of the largest and most developed cities in China, Shanghai's cancer rates reflect the changing burden of cancer in China. This study was undertaken to evaluate trends and quantify changes in the incidence and mortality of breast, ovarian, endometrial, and cervical cancers among female residents of urban Shanghai from 1973 to 2009. Data on cancer incidence and mortality were collected by the Shanghai Cancer Registry. International Classification of Disease version 10 codes for breast (C50), cervical (C53), endometrial (corpus uteri and uterus unspecified; C54 and C55), and ovarian cancer (C56) were included in the current analysis. Annual population data was provided by the Department of Vital Statistics, Shanghai Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention. A total of 73,755 female cancers and 28,274 related deaths were documented between 1973 and 2009. Age-standardized incidence and mortality rates were calculated using the Segi/Doll 1960 world standard. Joinpoint regression models were used to fit joined straight lines on a log-scale for annual age-standardized rates and to calculate annual percent changes (APC). Between 1973 and 2009, the incidence of breast, ovarian, and endometrial cancers increased, with overall APCs of 2.93, 2.20, and 1.66, respectively. Significant trends were found for breast cancer between 1979 and 1998 (APC 3.07) and for ovarian cancer between 1983 and 2009 (APC 2.83). For endometrial cancer a significant decrease occurred from 1973 to 1983 (APC -4.27), followed by a significant increase from 1983 to 1996 (APC 2.58). The incidence of cervical cancer decreased, with an overall APC of -3.91; this included three significant decreasing trends between 1973 and 1996, followed by a significant increase through 2009 (APC 8.49). The mortality of breast and ovarian cancers increased, with overall APCs of 0.70 and 0.58, respectively. Significant trends were found for breast cancer between 1982 and 2004 (APC 1.55) and for ovarian cancer during the entire time period. The mortality of cervical and endometrial cancers decreased, with overall APCs of -5.36 and -2.33, respectively. For cervical cancer, this included a significant decrease between 1973 and 1999 (APC -7.34), followed by a significant increase through 2009 (APC 3.24). For endometrial cancer, this included a significant decrease between 1973 and 1988 (APC -5.59). In summary, increasing trends were found for breast, ovarian and endometrial cancer incidence, and for breast and ovarian cancer mortality, while decreasing trends were found for cervical cancer incidence and cervical and endometrial cancer mortality among women in urban Shanghai. Additional analyses to identify age-period-cohort effects in this data are underway. This study lays the ground work for the establishment of cancer prevention and control priorities in China. Citation Format: Zhezhou Huang, Alicia C. Beeghly-Fadiel, Ying Zheng, Wanqing Wen, Yutang Gao, Chunxiao Wu, Pingping Bao, Weijian Zhong, Fan Jin, Yongbing Xiang, Wei Zheng, Xiao Ou Shu, Wei Lu. Secular trends in incidence and mortality of female cancers in Shanghai, China (1973-2009). [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 105th Annual Meeting of the American Association for Cancer Research; 2014 Apr 5-9; San Diego, CA. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2014;74(19 Suppl):Abstract nr 4140. doi:10.1158/1538-7445.AM2014-4140