Cautious or Fearless: A Comparative Analysis of the Policies of the Nixon and Trump Administrations Regarding the Inclusion of the South China Sea Region in the Scope of the Mutual Defense Treaty Between the Republic of the Philippines and the United States of America

Abstract

Since the Philippines began to have disputes regarding the South China Seas territorial sovereignty with China in the end of 1960s, it has engaged in a long-term game with its greater ally of whether the Mutual Defense Treaty between the Republic of the Philippines and the United States of America applies to the region. The Nixon administration was regarded as the basic positioning period of the US policy on the US-Philippines alliance during the Cold War, holding a vague attitude. However, during the Trump era, Washington clearly offered the Philippines security guarantees for this region, indicating a significant policy-making shift. This article selects the Nixon and Trump administrations as cases, utilizing the theoretical framework of the entrapment dilemma in alliance management theory which aims to investigate into the reasons why the two administrations held extremely different attitudes towards whether to include the South China Sea region in the scope of the MDT and analyze the cost-benefit considerations of Washington in managing the Asia-Pacific military alliance. The conclusion is that in the Nixon era, the US tended to avoid being entrapped because it was not worth the deterioration in relations with China and other informal allied countries only to maintain its alliance with the Philippines. However, during the Trump administration, to enhance its military presence in this region, maintain and strengthen a series of Asia-pacific military alliances, the US is willing to bear the risk of entrapment.