Evolution of the South China Sea geo-pattern based on the “geo-potential-strategic triangle” framework

Abstract

The South China Sea region is one of the most important international geopolitical problem regions. Against the background of international power transfer and China's peaceful rise, the changes in the South China Sea geo-pattern based on the power game not only concern China's national territorial sovereignty and maritime rights and interests, but also profoundly affect the security order of the Asia-Pacific region and even the world. In order to better study the evolution of the South China Sea geo-pattern and to judge the overall security situation, this study constructs a “geo-potential-strategic triangle” analytical framework to explore the evolution of the South China Sea geo-pattern from 2000 to 2018. The study shows that: (1) the geo-potential of each geo-actor shows a generally increasing trend. Based on the evolution curve of the South China Sea geo-pattern obtained from the geo-potential comparison, the South China Sea geo-pattern during the study period can be divided into the overall stabilization stage (2000–2010) and the tense phase(2010–2018). (2) through the mutual corroboration analysis of the evolution curve of the South China Sea geo-pattern and the interaction facts of related geo-actors, the assessment results coincide with the development of the security situation in the South China Sea region. This validates the applicability of the analytical framework in the geo-strategic intersection areas. The study aims to provide a new way of thinking for the quantitative assessment and analysis of the geo-pattern in the South China Sea region and other geo-strategic intersection areas. The study can help to objectively depict the evolution of the South China Sea geo-pattern, grasp the security situation in the South China Sea, and provide decision-making aids for sustainable peace and security, and differences management among the nations in the South China Sea region. This will further promote the construction of the regional ocean governance system and the construction of a closer “maritime community with a shared future”.