CAUSALITY AMONG ENERGY PRICE, TRADE OPENNESS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN EMERGING COUNTRIES: A PANEL COINTEGRATION ANALYSIS

Abstract

This paper investigates the possible existence of dynamic causality between energy price, trade openness and economic growth using data of thirty-six emerging economies over the period 1980 to 2014. Panel unit root tests, panel cointegration, fully modified least squares (FMOLS) methods and panel causality tests are used to investigate this relationship. The FMOLS estimation reveals that higher international reserve, trade openness and energy consumption increase economic growth, whereas higher energy price leads to lower GDP growth. The results also indicate that there is a short-run unidirectional panel causality running from energy price and economic growth. Moreover, there is a bidirectional panel causality operated from trade openness and the total energy consumption. The major policy implication based on the general result of the study is that emerging economy should take necessary steps in making energy management and trade openness policies on the basis of the causal relationship of the variables.