Causal Loop Analysis on the Impact of Schedule Risks in Prefabrication Housing Production in Hong Kong

Abstract

Every country is dealing with its own housing problems; however, none compares with Hong Kong where housing has always been a major concern as a result of low supply over the past decades. Against the constraints in delivering sufficient houses, prefabrication as a solution has been increasingly advocated for its potential benefits of rapid process and better quality. However, schedule delay caused by various risks affected the prefabrication housing production (PHP) in Hong Kong, which can be further exacerbated by the fact that the whole prefabrication manufacturing sector has moved to offshore areas in the Pearl River Delta region. This study applies system dynamics (SD) to recognize and investigate the potential effects of various risks on the scheduling of PHP. A causal-loop diagram is then constructed to analyze the impact of schedule risks in PHP based on the identified variables in the defined system. This study is of value in exploring interactional and interdependent relationships underlying the identified schedule risks within the three sub-systems including schedule risk sub-system, prefabrication housing production sub-system and schedule performance sub-system.