System Dynamics Approach for Investigating the Risk Effects on Schedule Delay in Infrastructure Projects

Abstract

AbstractEffective risk management is critical to the success of infrastructure projects. Although several studies in the literature have focused on various aspects of infrastructure project risk management, limited efforts have investigated the overall dynamics of infrastructure project risks and how dynamic risk interactions can affect a project schedule. This study, therefore, takes a holistic view to investigate the effects of dynamic risk interactions on a schedule delay in infrastructure projects. First, major risks that can cause a schedule delay in infrastructure projects are identified through a review of related literature and questionnaire survey. Second, the interactions among main variables related to infrastructure schedule risks are analyzed using causal loop diagrams. Afterward, a system dynamics (SD) model for the investigation of risk effects on a project schedule is developed based on the causal loop diagrams and the underlying relations among the variables. Finally, the model is applied...