Causal Creation in Social Processes: Empirical Analysis and Theoretical Implications

Abstract

This article presents empirical evidence for the creativity of social processes, as contrasted to both deterministic and random models of biological and economic phenomena. New methods for the analysis of empirical data indicate that population changes, financial data and other socioeconomic time series display non-periodic, apparently irregular patterns that evolve in time (temporal complexity), increase in diversity (diversification), and repeat less frequently than randomized copies of the data (novelty). Recurrence and autocorrelation measures indicate that these patterns are generated causally, not randomly. These measurements demonstrating causality and creativity in economic, social, and population processes indicate a non-stationary chaotic pattern (Bios) and suggest an alternative to current models that postulate either causal determinism or random change. Causal and creative chaotic patterns (Bios) are also observed in fundamental natural and human processes (quantum processes, cosmological expansion in the distribution of galaxies and quasars, animal populations, and heart and respiratory rates). Mathematical models show that Bios patterns are generated by equations that combine recurring change (recursion), bipolar opposition (e.g. sine functions) and conservation. Consumption and production (demand and supply) are obvious factors accounting for the generation of Bios in economic processes. Generations, sex, nations, races and classes are fundamental oppositions in social processes that may explain the generation of Bios. The extreme sensitivity of Bios to initial conditions' (external inputs) indicates the possibility of modifying the course of social processes, and the need to develop flexible methods rather than planning economic development. To develop such methods, and based on the empirical results here reported, this article articulates a new theory of social organization and change that advances three principles: (1) action (flow of energy in unidirectional time) as the one and only component of both processes and ideas; (2) opposition, both synergic and conflictual, as present in, and organizing, all physical, biological and mental processes; and (3) priority to nature and supremacy to persons as an unavoidable reality and a desirable pattern of action.