Caught by the fuzz: Using FCM to prevent coastal adaptation stakeholders from fleeing the scene

Abstract

Adaptation to climate change is an increasingly urgent priority for coastal managers. At the highest levels of governance, European Union and Member State adaptation policies and strategies are now well established, but meaningful adaptation interventions illustrating tangible gains in resilience remain scarce. A clear framework for generic adaptation processes, along with barriers to their smooth progress, have now been identified in the literature, and equally generic scenario analysis tools have been put forward to strengthen adaptation delivery by assisting coastal managers to overcome them. Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping (FCM) is a relatively novel option in this respect, having yet to achieve the kind of widespread uptake and trial that more orthodox futures approaches such as intuitive logic scenarios have. FCM is however growing rapidly in its range of uses and breadth of uptake, and its utility in overcoming the barriers to adaptation among coastal managers is therefore worthy of analysis. This case study, in which FCM was employed in place of intuitive logic scenario analysis within an adaptation strategy development process, found FCM to carry a number of key strengths that intuitive logic scenario analysis has been found to lack. Through enabling a more detailed and granular level of participatory development of the ‘engine’ of the futures process than possible under an intuitive logic approach, the level of buy-in and commitment to the adaptation strategy development process achieved among coastal managers and stakeholders was significantly greater.