Soft computing for crisis management and political decision making: the use of genetically evolved fuzzy cognitive maps

Abstract

This paper examines the use of fuzzy cognitive maps (FCMs) as a technique for modeling political and strategic issues situations and supporting the decision-making process in view of an imminent crisis. Its object domain is soft computing using as its basic elements different methods from the areas of fuzzy logic, cognitive maps, neural networks and genetic algorithms. FCMs, more specifically, use notions borrowed from artificial intelligence and combine characteristics of both fuzzy logic and neural networks, in the form of dynamic models that describe a given political setting. The present work proposes the use of the genetically evolved certainty neuron fuzzy cognitive map (GECNFCM) as an extension of certainty neuron fuzzy cognitive maps (CNFCMs) aiming at overcoming the main weaknesses of the latter, namely the recalculation of the weights corresponding to each concept every time a new strategy is adopted. This novel technique combines CNFCMs with genetic algorithms (GAs), the advantage of which lies with their ability to offer the optimal solution without a problem-solving strategy, once the requirements are defined. Using a multiple scenario analysis we demonstrate the value of such a hybrid technique in the context of a model that reflects the political and strategic complexity of the Cyprus issue, as well as the uncertainties involved in it. The issue has been treated on a purely technical level, with distances carefully kept concerning all sides involved in it.