Catchment-Scale Drought Propagation Assessment in the Indus Basin of Pakistan Using a Combined Approach of Principal Components and Wavelet Analyses

Abstract

Abstract This study aims to comprehend the propagation of meteorological drought [expressed by the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI)] into hydrological drought [expressed by the standardized runoff index (SRI)] using the combined application of principal component analysis (PCA) and wavelet analysis for a period of 39 years (1980–2018) in the Indus basin, Pakistan. PCA was used to calculate principal components of precipitation, temperature, and streamflow, which were used to systematically propagate drought from one catchment to another, resulting in a catchment-scale drought assessment. The systematic propagation of drought was useful in capturing the effects of local climate variability in the 27 catchments of the Indus basin. Wavelet analyses are used to calculate the variability of SPEI/SRI and propagation (analyzed with the wavelet coherence) from SPEI to SRI. The propagation time from SPEI to SRI was cross correlated. SPEI/SRI time series showed extreme/severe droughts in 16 out of the 39 years, where relatively weak apparent wet and drought events are observed at short periods (1 month) and apparent at longer periods (6 and 12 months). Propagation from SPEI to SRI is catchment specific, with most catchments showing transition in early years (1997–2003). Propagation rate is higher in the upper Indus basin (UIB) and lower Indus basin (LIB) than in the middle Indus basin (MIB), suggesting that climate plays an important role in drought development and propagation. Results also showed a shorter and longer propagation time in the UIB and LIB, respectively. This study has helped us understand the behavior of droughts at catchment scale and will therefore help in the development of drought mitigation plans in Pakistan and similar regions around the world.