Catching a Serial Rapist: Hits and Misses in Criminal Profiling

Abstract

This paper presents a case story of police investigation of a case of serial rape, and the offender profile that was prepared to help identify the offender. The main focus is on the geographic profile, which was elaborated on the basis of theories about awareness area, activity space, and buffer zones for serial offenders. The theories match this specific case quite closely, but the suggestions submitted to the police were not precise enough to identify the rapist. Our offender profile is therefore contrasted with the explanations that the rapist himself gave us after his arrest on how he had sought out his victims. We find that assumptions about the means of transport the offender is using are of vital importance for the geographic profile. Input parameters given to the computer program determine the likely distance decay and the size of the buffer zone. The same data can result in different predictions if these parameters are changed. We recommend that geographic profiles should be supplemented with thorough on‐site observations, and discuss ways to improve police access to public and civil registers when the offender has no previous criminal record.