Prediction of serial perpetrator residence: Part I—Induction of models utilising spatio‐temporal routing functions and investigative information

Abstract

AbstractThis article presents a new framework for the geographic profiling problem which assesses and integrates the travel environment of road networks; beliefs and assumptions formed through the investigation process about the perpetrator; and information derived from the analysis of evidence. Each piece of information is evaluated in conjunction with functions which gather real‐time travel information, including both time and distance of likely perpetrator travel, and is then used to update prior beliefs about the potential base of operation of the perpetrator. A novel approach was developed to generate geographic profiles given different amounts of information about the perpetrator: a centrographic strategy for when only the victim dump sites are known; a perpetrator trek strategy for instances where both victim encounter and dump sites are available; and a formal evidence‐driven model which leverages and integrates available information and evidence relevant to the case for the development of a geographic profile. A follow‐up article will evaluate these models through a comprehensive application to the Yorkshire Ripper investigation (see Part II).