Casual relation between number of tourists and exchange rates: an implementation for Turkey

Abstract

Objective - The aim of this study is to determine the importance of foreign exchange inflow by examining the relationship between exchange rate and number of tourists with an econometric analysis. The effect of changing exchange rates on the number of tourists coming to Turkey, and whether the expenditures of the incoming tourists has an impact on the exchange rates is determined with an empirical analysis. Methodology - Granger Causality Tests and the econometric model of Toda and Yamamoto were used in the study to analyze the relationship between tourist number and exchange rate. In addition, Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root test was also employed to determine the order stationarity of variables. Findings - The study found a unilateral causality relationship between the number of tourists and the exchange rate. At this point, there is an unilateral causality relationship from the exchange rate to the number of tourists. While the exchange rate affects the number of tourists, the number of tourists does not affect the exchange rate. Conclusion- In conclusion, it was stated with an econometric analysis that fluctuations in the exchange rate affect the number of tourists coming to Turkey and, the economic activities of tourists coming to Turkey do not affect the exchange rates.