Case-based complexity: within-case time variation and temporal casing

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We observe that time is central to most social dynamics and yet remains poorly understood. The complexity sciences have contributed a wide range of concepts and tools to investigate and recast time in social systems. However, the dominant focus on quantitative models and quantification of data in the complexity sciences also prohibits a deeper understanding of time. As such, there is a need to fuse alternative notions of time with how it is commonly understood and measured in the complexity sciences. To this end, we juxtapose diverse notions of time from the social sciences and comment upon how this contrasts with notions in the complexity sciences. We will demonstrate how (qualitative) temporal casing can more appropriately capture social and causal complexity through within-case time variation. We use examples from research into megaprojects to demonstrate how temporal casing plays out in empirical analysis.

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  • 10.1016/j.cities.2023.104507
Tracing complex urban transformations in Germany, Switzerland and Austria using trajectory-based qualitative comparative analysis (TJ-QCA)
  • Aug 16, 2023
  • Cities
  • Lasse Gerrits + 3 more

The re-development of abandoned industrial areas and city cores characterizes the transition from industrial to post-industrial societies in Western Europe. Shorter-term and project-based urban programs, like the re-developments of waterfronts and station areas, emerged as more sui in response to the consequences of economic, demographic, political and cultural change than long-term, top-down spatial planning. Notably, processes and outcomes of strategic spatial planning vary across European cities and may display unique characteristics. This study compares eleven urban transformations in Germany, Austria, and Switzerland to shed light on the degree to which these programmatic urban transformations have been successful in shifting the urban fabric from an industrial to a post-industrial state. We examine the combinations of factors that, over time, have contributed to a qualitative urban change. Using primary and secondary sources, we perform a Trajectory-Based Qualitative Comparative Analysis (TJ-QCA) to identify recipes for successful urban transitions. Results show that there are two main planning recipes associated with successful urban transformations: either a combination of a high strategic character of the project with a leading role of public actors, or a combination of a high strategic character with brownfield redevelopment.

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  • Cite Count Icon 2
  • 10.1007/s11077-024-09531-y
The soft underbelly of complexity science adoption in policymaking: towards addressing frequently overlooked non-technical challenges
  • Apr 29, 2024
  • Policy Sciences
  • Darren Nel + 1 more

The deepening integration of social-technical systems creates immensely complex environments, creating increasingly uncertain and unpredictable circumstances. Given this context, policymakers have been encouraged to draw on complexity science-informed approaches in policymaking to help grapple with and manage the mounting complexity of the world. For nearly eighty years, complexity-informed approaches have been promising to change how our complex systems are understood and managed, ultimately assisting in better policymaking. Despite the potential of complexity science, in practice, its use often remains limited to a few specialised domains and has not become part and parcel of the mainstream policy debate. To understand why this might be the case, we question why complexity science remains nascent and not integrated into the core of policymaking. Specifically, we ask what the non-technical challenges and barriers are preventing the adoption of complexity science into policymaking. To address this question, we conducted an extensive literature review. We collected the scattered fragments of text that discussed the non-technical challenges related to the use of complexity science in policymaking and stitched these fragments into a structured framework by synthesising our findings. Our framework consists of three thematic groupings of the non-technical challenges: (a) management, cost, and adoption challenges; (b) limited trust, communication, and acceptance; and (c) ethical barriers. For each broad challenge identified, we propose a mitigation strategy to facilitate the adoption of complexity science into policymaking. We conclude with a call for action to integrate complexity science into policymaking further.

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Society as a Complex Adaptive System
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Originally published as Buckley, W. (1 968). Society as a adaptive system, in W. Buckley (ed.), Modern Systems Research for the Behavioral Scientist, Chicago, IL: Aldine Publishing Company. Reprinted with kind permission. Although the phrase complex adaptive is one usually thought to have been coined at the Santa Fe Institute sometime during the 1990s, we can see by the title of this classic paper that the systemsoriented social thinker Walter Buckley had already been using the phrase complex adaptive as early as 1968 and with pretty much the same connotations as it is used today. Thus, similar to how the phrase is contemporarily employed, Buckley explicitly crafted complex adaptive to counter an equilibriumbased, closed view of systems which he felt was endemic at the time of his writing this paper. The idea that the dynamics of social systems were dominated by an equilibriumseeking tendency had become entrenched in social thought ever since the great economist Vilfredo Pareto (who, interestingly enough, had also introduced early speculations on power-law type distributions which are so popular today in complexity circles) had enunciated it strongly in his early version of sociology in the late nineteenth century. For Pareto, as was true among most economists at the time (and, as hard to believe as it is, is still so), equilibriumseeking dynamics were at the core of economic theory (for a discussion of the idea of equilibrium-dominating in social and psychological systems, see Goldstein, 1990, 1995). According to Laurence Henderson (1935), himself an early general systems theorist from within the discipline of physiology (and from which Walter Cannon had derived his own notion of physiological homeostasis), Pareto's thesis at the Polytechnic School of Turin was on the mathematical theory of equilibrium in elastic solids. Pareto had it that a social system was bound by equilibrium, as in any mechanical system so constructed, which meant that the system would automatically return to its former state after any sort of perturbation of its key variables (within a certain amount; see the Appendix below for Henderson's mathematical formulation of this understanding of equilibrium). Henderson also indicated how close Pareto's equilibrium model of social systems was to the equilibrium model of physical chemistry put forward and made a keystone of that discipline Le Chatelier. It was against interpretations of social dynamics as being dominated by equilibrium that Buckley offered his inspired exposition of adaptive systems. Unlike a system governed by a propensity to return to equilibrium after being disturbed, and in so doing losing structure as entropy increased, Buckley's adaptive systems built-up structure as they adapted in the face of new internal and external interactions. Buckley's classic paper Society as a Complex Adaptive System (Buckley, 1968) can be seen as providing a useful bridge between the interests of complexity scientists and those of social entrepreneurs as they struggle to apply the concepts of adaptive systems to societal (social) change and innovation. The paper exemplifies the early sociological formulation of the concepts of complexity and system-adaptation in the context of social value creation and societal change. Buckley's career as an American sociologist spanned the micro-meso-macro social divides by bringing a pragmatic understanding to social contexts that both social entrepreneurs and complexity scientists will appreciate. In general, Walter F. Buckley (1922-2006) is considered a pioneer in the field of modern social systems, sociology, and sociocybernetics. His early academic career resulted in the publication of Sociology: A Modern Systems Theory (1967) in which he constructed a foundation for a very contemporary-sounding dynamic, morphogenic conceptualization of coevolving social structures that was not dependent on the ideas of equilibrium- or homeostasis-seeking processes. …

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Social ecological complex adaptive systems: a framework for research on payments for ecosystem services
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The environment is both a setting for and a product of human interactions. Understanding the dynamic nature of human-environment interactions is critical for mitigating the impacts of human induced environmental change and understanding how the environment shapes social systems. Current research has focused on the reduced ability of many natural systems to provide ecosystem services and the subsequent impact on human well-being. Furthermore, there has been a proliferation of cases analyzing the impacts of payment programs designed to enhance ecosystem services. However, analyses that link environmental policies through to their ecological results are not common and methods to do so are not thoroughly developed. To better analyze these interactions, a theory or framework is necessary. This article presents a framework of social ecological complex adaptive systems (SECAS). The framework links structuration theory from social science with the theories of complex adaptive systems from ecology to provide an enhanced understanding of the human drivers and responses to environmental change. The framework is presented as a recursive process where social and ecological systems are both the medium for and product of social action and ecological disturbance. A case study of Costa Rica’s ecosystem service payment program is presented as a demonstration of empirical applicability. This framework is proposed as a method to evaluate payments for ecosystem services, conservation policies, urban ecosystems, and for land use change in general.

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