Case study feasibility analysis of the Pelamis wave energy convertor in Ireland, Portugal and North America

Abstract

The performance and economic viability of the Pelamis wave energy converter (WEC) has been investigated over a 20 year project time period using 2007 wave energy data from various global locations: Ireland, Portugal, USA and Canada. Previous reports assessing the Pelamis quote a disparate range of financial returns for the Pelamis, necessitating a comparative standardised assessment of wave energy economic indicators. An Excel model (NAVITAS) was created for this purpose which estimated the annual energy output of Pelamis for each location using wave height (H s) and period (T z) data, and produced financial results dependant on various input parameters. The economic indicators used for the analysis were cost of electricity (COE), net present value (NPV) and internal rate of return (IRR), modelled at a tariff rate of €0.20/kWh). Analysis of the wave energy data showed that the highest annual energy output (AEO) and capacity for the Pelamis was the Irish site, as expected. Portugal returned lower AOE similar to the lesser North American sites. Monthly energy output was highest in the winter, and was particularly evident in the Irish location. Moreover, the difference between the winter wave energy input and the Pelamis energy output for Ireland was also significant as indicated by the capture width, suggesting that Pelamis design was not efficiently capturing all the wave energy states present during that period. Modelling of COE for the various case study locations showed large variation in returns, depending on the number of WEC modelled and the initial cost input and learning curve. COE was highest when modelling single WEC in comparison to multiples, as well as when using 2004 initial costs in comparison to 2008 costs (at which time price of materials peaked). Ireland returned the lowest COE of €0.05/kWh modelling over 100 WEC at 2004 cost of materials, and €0.15/kWh at 2008 prices. Although favourable COE were recorded from some of the modelled scenarios, results indicated that NPV and IRR were not encouraging when using a €0.20/kWh tariff. It is recommended that a tariff rate of €0.30/kWh be considered for Ireland, and higher rates for other locations. In conclusion, Ireland had the most abundant wave energy output from the Pelamis. COE returns for Ireland were competitive for large number of WEC, even at peak costs, but it is recommended that careful analysis of NPV and IRR should be carried out for full economic assessment. Finally, a standardised method of COE reporting is recommended, using fixed WEC number or MW size, as well as standardised learning/production curves and initial costs, to facilitate confidence in investment decisions based on COE.