Cascade-hierarchical modeling in analyzing the dynamics of complex system resource characteristics

Abstract

Introduction: Describing the dynamically changing resource characteristics of a complex system makes it necessary to decompose the optimization problems and itemize the system representation levels. This leads to multi-model approaches. In problems which require the construction of multi-model complexes with sophisticated links between the models, the sole use of hierarchical topology of model complexes does not guarantee that the modeling dynamics factors are connected and the data volume is taken into account at each hierarchical level. It also does not reflect the parametric variability of experiments at each level. Purpose: Developing a technique for constructing multi-model complexes within cascade-hierarchical structures, and forming the evaluation functionality taking into account the principle of its permanence for modeling the resource characteristics of complex systems when studying the dynamics of degradation failures and replacement of resources. Methods: System analysis and structural synthesis of models; embedded Markov models with quasi-absorbing state at the local level of a multi-model complex. Results: The principle of permanent evaluation functionality is formulated. It allows you to implement an approach to the problems of decision support for resource provision in complex technical systems by determining the service strategy. In general, a cascade-hierarchical modeling scheme is formed in a three-dimensional functional space: system structure — model type (level) — modeling plan cascades. The proposed modeling methodology within the cascade-hierarchical topology of a multi-model complex on the base of the permanent evaluation functionality principle allows you to keep the constancy of the representability of system characteristics under the phase enlargement of the modeling space, and thereby rationalize the planning of your experiments. Practical relevance: The results of the research were used in the development and analysis of the dynamics of resource security of complex technical systems. The proposed approach makes it possible to formulate research plans for complex systems in a parametric model space and, based on the principle of the permanent evaluation functionality, keep the constancy of the representability of system characteristics under the phase enlargement of the modeling space.