Carbon sequestration in the growing stock of trees in Finland under different cutting and climate scenarios

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In this work the aim was to determine how carbon sequestration in the growing stock of trees in Finland is dependent on the forest management and increased production potential due to climate change. This was analysed for the period 2003–2053 using forest inventory data and the forestry model MELA. Four combinations of two climate change and two management scenarios were studied: current (CU) and gradually warming (CC) climate and forest management strategies corresponding to different rates of utilisation of the cutting potential, namely maximum sustainable removal (Sust) or maximum net present value (NPV) of wood production (Max). In this analysis of Finland, the initial amount of carbon in the growing stock was 765 Mt (2,802 Tg CO2). At the end of the simulation, the carbon in the growing stock of trees in Finland had increased to 894 Mt (3,275 Tg CO2) under CUSust, 906 Mt (3,321 Tg CO2) under CUMax, 1,060 Mt (3,885 Tg CO2) under CCSust and 1,026 Mt (3,758 Tg CO2) under CCMax. The results show that future development of carbon in the growing stock is not only dependent on climate change scenarios but also on forest management. For example, maximising the NPV of wood production without sustainability constraints results, over the short term, in a large amount of wood obtained in regeneration cuttings and a consequent decrease in the amount of carbon in growing stock. Over the longer term, this decrease in the carbon of growing stock in regenerated forests is compensated by the subsequent increase in fast-growing young forests. By comparison, no drastic short-term decrease in carbon stock was found in the Sust scenarios; only minor decreases were observed.