Carbon Reduction Analysis of Life Cycle Prediction Assessment of Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles：Considering Regional Features and Vehicle Type Differences

Abstract

As one of the important paths for China to achieve the "dual carbon" strategy， developing hydrogen fuel cell vehicles is currently being promoted in various regions across the country， including passenger cars， coaches， and heavy-duty trucks. Quantifying the carbon reduction potential of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles for different vehicle types and regions has become a hot research topic. Using a life cycle assessment method that considers future vehicle fuel economy， power generation carbon emission factors， hydrogen production carbon emission factors， and regional differences in the scale and hydrogen production methods， this study quantitatively evaluated the life cycle carbon emissions of different types of vehicles， including fuel cell vehicles （FCV）， traditional fuel vehicles （ICEV）， and battery electric vehicles （BEV）. We compared and analyzed the carbon reduction potential of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles at different times and in different regions and conducted an uncertainty analysis on hydrogen consumption per hundred kilometers. The results showed that by 2025， the life cycle carbon emissions of hydrogen fuel cell coaches would decrease by 36.0% compared to that of traditional fuel coaches， but the reduction in carbon emissions for hydrogen fuel cell heavy-duty trucks was not significant. By 2035， as the hydrogen energy source structure in China continues to improve， the life cycle carbon emissions of hydrogen fuel cell heavy-duty trucks were predicted to decrease by 36.5% compared to that of traditional fuel heavy-duty trucks. The decarbonization potential was most significant for heavy-duty trucks compared to that of passenger cars and coaches. Taking the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei demonstration group as an example in 2035， as the hydrogen consumption per hundred kilometers decreases by 20%， the carbon reduction potential of FCV passenger cars， coaches， and heavy-duty trucks would increase by 7.29%， 9.93%， and 19.57%， respectively. Therefore， it is recommended to prioritize the promotion of hydrogen fuel cell coaches in the short term， heavy-duty trucks in the long term， and passenger cars as a supplement. Promoting hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in different regions and stages will help advance the low-carbon development of the automotive industry in China.