Carbon peak simulation and peak pathway analysis for hub-and-spoke container intermodal network

Abstract

The global consensus on carbon peak and carbon neutral goals extends to the transport sector. This paper provides a method for simulating the carbon emission peak time and peak value within a container intermodal network (CIN). Our approach commences by capturing the fundamental network elements, including nodes, routes, and freight flows, through intermodal network modeling. We then integrate a carbon emission model with scenario analysis, utilizing Monte Carlo simulation to predict the probability of the CIN's carbon emission peak time and value. Finally, using the Yangtze River Delta regional container intermodal network (YRD-CIN) as a case study, 15 scenarios are set up to explore the effects of intermodal transport network development on carbon peaks and peak times under varying conditions in the YRD region. The findings demonstrate the significant influence of modal transport shifts, network connectivity, and energy technology levels on the carbon peak in the YRD-CIN.