Feasibility assessment of the carbon emissions peak in China's construction industry: Factor decomposition and peak forecast

Abstract

The carbon emissions from the construction industry have a significant impact on China's ability to successfully achieve its 2030 carbon peak target. The paper reports the feasibility of carbon peaks in China's construction industry based on two perspectives of factor decomposition and peak prediction. First, the Generalized Dividing Index Method factorizes the carbon emissions of China's construction industry from 2001 to 2017, and quantifies the contribution rate of each influent factor. Second, a baseline scenario, a low-carbon energy-saving scenario, and a technology breakthrough scenario are constructed. The carbon peaks of the China's construction industry in the three scenarios are then predicted for 2018–2045. The results are as follows: Firstly, GDP has the highest cumulative contribution rate to China's construction industry carbon emissions, and labor productivity and the output carbon intensity have a depressing effect on carbon emissions in that industry. The contribution rate of energy consumption to carbon emissions is always positive and grows year by year, whereas the energy intensity and carbon intensity of energy consumption have great potential for reducing carbon emissions in the future. The number of laborers and the per capita carbon emissions of the construction industry, the total labor force in each industry, and the proportion of the labor force in the construction industry have contributed to the carbon emissions of the construction industry. Second, under the baseline scenario, China's construction industry achieves carbon peaks in 2045, with a peak of 50,935,390 tons. Under the low-carbon energy-saving scenario, the carbon peak of the construction industry occurs in 2030, with a peak value of 31,685,580 tons. Under the technological breakthrough scenario, the carbon peak time of the construction industry is the earliest (2020), and the peak value is the lowest (29,008,400 tons). This study has important implications for the carbon peaks at the national macro level.