Carbon in the atmosphere and terrestrial biosphere in the 21st century.

Abstract

The release of carbon dioxide from fossil-fuel combustion and land-use change has caused a significant perturbation in the natural cycling of carbon between land, atmosphere and oceans. Understanding and managing the effects of this disruption on atmospheric composition and global climate are likely to be amongst the most pressing issues of the 21st century. However, the present-day carbon cycle is still poorly understood. One remarkable feature is that an increasing amount of atmospheric carbon dioxide appears to be being absorbed by terrestrial vegetation. I review the recent evidence for the magnitude and spatial distribution of this 'terrestrial carbon sink', drawing on current research on the global atmospheric distribution and transport of carbon dioxide, oxygen and their isotopes; direct measurement of CO(2) fluxes above various biomes; and inventories of forest biomass and composition. I review the likely causes of these carbon sinks and sources and their implications for the ecology and stability of these biomes. Finally, I examine prospects and key issues over coming decades. Within a few years, satellite measurements of atmospheric CO(2) and forest biomass, coupled with 'real-time' biosphere-atmosphere models, will revolutionize our understanding of the terrestrial carbon cycle. Controlling deforestation and managing forests has the potential to play a significant but limited part in reaching the goal of stabilizing atmospheric CO(2) concentrations. However, there are likely to be limits to the amount of carbon storage possible in natural vegetation, and, in the long term, terrestrial carbon storage may be unstable, with the potential to accelerate rather than brake global warming.