Abstract
The article assesses carbon emissions from fuel combustion in the economy of the Brazilian State of Minas Gerais between 2005 and 2016. An open Leontief model with hybrid units and incorporation of an energy sector was built using available input-output matrices and energy flows by economic sector. Overall, “Transport, storage, and mailing”, “Petroleum derivatives and ethanol”, and “Metallurgy” remained as the most relevant sectors in terms of emissions. Total and distributive impacts decreased between 2005 and 2013, with a trend reversal between 2013 and 2016. In addition to these sectors, “Mining” and “Agriculture, forestry and logging” were significant sources of emissions embedded in exports. A reduction of approximately 20% in sectoral average and aggregate emission requirements was observed, despite the substantial growth of the economy of the State in the period. There were decreasing returns to such gains, which, alongside the trend reversal at the end of the period, point to the role of specific macroeconomic factors in the observed outcomes and the need for new initiatives to curb emissions in the future.
Highlights
The anthropogenic character of the elevation of atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, as well as its potentially catastrophic consequences for the maintenance of human and non-human life on a planetary level, are beyond dispute in a scientific context (Rockström et al, 2009)
It is worth noting that this study considered only emissions accruing from the combustion of fossil fuels or biomass, which included diesel oil, biodiesel, fuel oil, gasoline, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), kerosene, coke gas, coke, ethanol, and other secondary sources
The results are divided into three main parts: total emission requirements, key sectors in terms of emissions, and emissions embedded in exports
Summary
The anthropogenic character of the elevation of atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, as well as its potentially catastrophic consequences for the maintenance of human and non-human life on a planetary level, are beyond dispute in a scientific context (Rockström et al, 2009). In addition to the extinction of animal and plant species, changing rainfall patterns, rising sea levels, and more frequent severe weather phenomena (e.g. thunderstorms, floods, windstorms, heat waves, and prolonged droughts), the adverse economic effects of climate change include disruptions in water supply, energy generation, and agricultural productivity. In Brazil, in accordance with the Permanent Joint Commission on Climate Change (CMMC), the greatest environmental and socioeconomic damages caused by these occurrences involve: aggravation of water supply scarcity in the semi-arid Northeast, and loss of biodiversity (including species extinction), replacement of the rainforest by savanna-like vegetation, and desertification and salinization of agricultural land in the Amazon. The loss of areas of rainforest in the Amazon would entail changes to rainfall patterns in the south-central portion of the country, which is its main agricultural region. Rising sea levels are a threat to Brazilian coastal cities (CMMC, 2013, p. 8, translated by the authors)
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