Carbon Emission and Urban Construction Land Expansion in China: Evidence from Co-Integration Tests and Impulse Response Model

Abstract

Using co-integration analysis, Granger causality test, and impulse response analysis in an integrated way, this paper makes empirical study of the impact on China’s carbon emission by its urban construction land expansion. The result shows that there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between carbon emission and urban construction land expansion in China, with the latter being the Granger cause of the increase in carbon emission. However, the impact process shows a lagging nature. The impact effect is not so evident in a short term, but is rather significant in a long term (five to ten years). To reduce its carbon emission, China should optimize its urban development mode and control the scale of urban development reasonably, especially focusing on the economical and intensive use of land and upgrading of industrial structure, so as to reduce energy consumption by its urban expansion, check excessive increase in carbon emission, and promote the sustainable urbanization.