Carbon constraints, industrial structure upgrading, and green total factor productivity: an empirical study based on the Yangtze River Economic Belt

Abstract

Abstract Reducing carbon emissions, upgrading industrial structure, and promoting green total factor productivity are important ways to tackle global climate change. The Yangtze River Economic Belt is an important economic region and industrial corridor in China. Using the panel data of 11 provinces in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2006 to 2020, this study calculates industrial green total factor productivity using the super-efficient SBM model, and analyzes its evolution trends in time and space. This study discusses how carbon constraints and industrial structure upgrading affect green total factor productivity by using benchmark regression and the intermediary effect model. The results show that green total factor productivity is fluctuating and rising over time, and is in a gradient decreasing spatial distribution from the Yangtze River Delta to Urban Agglomeration in the Middle Reaches to Chengdu–Chongqing Economic Zone; carbon constraints, industrial structure upgrading, and their synergy have a positive effect on the industrial green total factor productivity; industrial structure upgrading has partial intermediary effects, and can help carbon constraints positively impact on industrial green development. Based on the above results, reducing carbon emission and accelerating industrial structure upgrading are important for achieving economic and ecological sustainability.