Carbon abatement cost of hydrogen based synthetic fuels – A general framework exemplarily applied to the maritime sector

Abstract

The present paper aims to develop a techno-economic and cross-sectoral framework quantifying the carbon-abatement-cost of hydrogen based synthetic-fuels in energy-related sectors. To obtain generally valid statements and to counteract the problem of forecast uncertainty, the framework is detached from specific boundary conditions using Monte Carlo simulations with derived probability distributions. Of particular interest is thereby the newly introduced calculation approach which allows for generalization, a detailed analysis of relevant inputs and a stochastic assessment of the results obtained.Without the loss of generalization, the framework is validated by the application case of marine decarbonization where an extensive literature review is presented. The result is a cost level of 661$/tCO2median. The delta between existing CO2 taxation and calculated carbon-abatement-cost reveals a financial gap that hinders the market uptake of synthetic fuels. Therefore, the framework is used to quantify financial interest benefits resulting in a relevant reduction potential to 553$/tCO2median.